Steering Our Canoes in Stormy Seas: On Power, Presence & Pacific Agency

There’s a certain weight that comes with being from the Pacific right now - a knowing that our blue continent, once dismissed as ‘small islands,’ is now the front line of global competition.

Watching the recent Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) briefing — “Is America ceding ground to China in the Pacific?”, and then Emeritus Professor Hugh White’s Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) talk on Australia’s “Strategic Crisis,”; I can’t help but feel that the rest of the world is finally seeing what we, as Pacific peoples, have long known: we are not passive players in someone else’s game. We are not pawns.

Prime Minister Marape is quoted on CSIS as saying, "We will continue to strengthen our trade relations in Asia and the Pacific, where our produce is welcome. If the US market becomes more difficult, due to this tariff, we will simply direct our goods and markets to where there is mutual respect and no artificial barriers."

We are navigating a storm, yes — but we are navigating it with our own hands on the paddle.

The View from the CSIS Deck: America’s Drift, China’s Drive

The CSIS video outlines how the U.S. is losing ground in the Pacific - not because it’s being pushed out, but because it’s slowly stepping back. Aid is dropping. Climate investment isn’t matching rhetoric. Promises linger, while China lands deals, builds roads, and shows up.

But China isn’t just showing up with bulldozers and data cables. It’s showing up with a smile, a cheque, and a calculated offer - often behind closed doors.

What the video left unsaid, but what we feel daily, is how the weight of this shift lands on local communities. How “development” that looks good on paper can often mean dependence. And how the Pacific’s relational way of life - our trust, our hospitality - is sometimes turned into a tool by outside powers.

Australia’s Wake-Up Call: Professor Hugh White’s Sober Truths

Professor Hugh White is not here to comfort Canberra. His message is clear: the strategic order Australia has relied on - a dominant America holding China in check - is over. And no shiny submarine from AUKUS will fill that void.

What struck me most is that his advice to Australia - “... build your own strength, stop relying blindly on allies, and learn to live with a powerful China” - is exactly what we Pacific Island nations should also be hearing.

Australia may feel existential dread at the thought of America stepping back. For us, in the islands, this isn’t a thought experiment. This is our every day. We’ve always lived with shifting tides. The real question isn’t who’s coming or going. It’s how we hold the line in the middle.

So What Does This Mean for Us in the Pacific?

Despite our size, sovereignty is non-negotiable - and strategy is not an exclusive domain for the 'great powers'.

Let me be clear: we are not just observers of great power politics. We are the terrain on which it is playing out.

But we still have choices - and if we’re smart, we can turn this moment into one of strategic agency.

• We need transparency like we need clean water.

Our people deserve to know what deals are being made. Require clarity on any external arrangement - whether security, development, or resource-based. Transparency and parliamentary/public oversight uphold the Boe Declaration principles and self-determination.

Whether it’s China, Australia, or the U.S. — if there’s a security agreement, a loan, or a port project, it should be debated in Parliament, reported to the public, and monitored by civil society.

Closed-door diplomacy doesn’t align with the Pacific way.

• We must centre people, not power projections.

Security in the Pacific isn’t about military bases - it is also about fisheries, women’s safety, clean drinking water, and climate resilience.

If a partner cannot speak to those things, then they shouldn’t be leading our conversations.

• We must hedge, not hook.

We shouldn’t be loyal to a single, dominant power. Diversify relationships strategically - engage with the US, China, Australia, Japan, the EU - always guided by governance, climate fairness, and development impact.

We should build smart, sovereign relationships with many - and always on OUR terms.

Partnerships should serve our futures, not lock us into someone else’s conflict.

• We must guard our institutions like we guard our stories.

Soft power can be more dangerous than hard power when it is allowed to erode democratic norms and values.

Be wary of deals that erode institutional checks (for my Solomon Islands people, I'm thinking of the recent furore over the Busy Signal concert, for example, and the way that was planned). Economic inducements can corrode democratic norms far more effectively than overt coercion. Practise discernment!

Pacific states need strong watchdogs - national audit offices, the media, and civil society - to ensure our sovereignty isn’t sold in small pieces.

• We must remember: we are not alone.

We have the Boe Declaration. We have the Pacific Islands Forum. We have each other.

Build our bargaining strength and establish norms that shield us (ESPECIALLY our vulnerable), from external pressures.

Regional solidarity is one of our greatest strategic tools.

Let’s not forget that.

From Canoe to Compass

CSIS’s portrayal of U.S. retrenchment and China’s methodical advance, paired with White’s call for strategic autonomy, collectively expose a reality: the Pacific is no longer beyond the domain of geopolitical contest. Yet, that contest need not define the narrative.

For the Solomon Islands and its regional neighbours, the challenge - and opportunity - is to steward sovereignty with agency: transparent engagements, resilient systems, and alliances that serve local needs, not just geopolitical symbolism.

In a world dividing between power blocs, the Pacific can choose to be more than a playing field - it can define its own terms, anchored in principles, adaptive in strategy, and grounded in Pacific values.

Final Reflections:

There’s a proverb I come back to often: “You cannot change the wind, but you can adjust your sail.”

We cannot stop the U.S. from stepping back.

We cannot stop China from stepping forward.

But we can decide how we respond.

This moment in history isn’t just about choosing sides. It’s about choosing strategies. It’s about choosing ourselves - our people, our values, our sovereignty - every single time.

As a Pacific Island woman, I’ve grown up in the rhythm of tides and the watchfulness of women who hold families, churches, and communities together.

We know how to hold tension.

We know how to read the signs.

So let’s not be afraid of this storm.

Let’s adjust our sails, consult our stars, and steer forward - together.

References:

AIIA. (2025, July 22) Indo Pacific Briefing - Understanding Australia's Strategic Crisis with Prof Hugh White. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtw7R9DZ_WA 

CSIS. (2025, July 24). Is America ceding ground to China in the Pacific? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B77a8o3RSUw

Jones, S. G. (2024). The US Defense Industrial Base Is Not Prepared for a Possible Conflict with China. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).–2023.–URL: https://features. csis. org/preparing-the-US-industrial-base-to-deterconflict-with-China/(дата обращения: 10.10. 2023).

Teer, J., Sweijs, T., van Hooft, P., Boswinkel, L., Eijkelkamp, J., & Thompson, J. (2021). China’s Military Rise.

White, H. (2010). Quarterly Essay 39 Power Shift: Australia's Future Between Washington and Beijing (Vol. 39). Black Inc..

White, H. (2017). Quarterly Essay 68 Without America: Australia in the New Asia (Vol. 68). Quarterly Essay.

White, H. (2019). How to defend Australia. La Trobe University Press.